TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION STATEMENT ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA METEOROLOGICAL SERVICES 4:00 PM ECT SUN AUG 8 2021
…DEVELOPING TROPICAL DISTURBANCE APPROACHING THE AREA…
THE ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA METEOROLOGICAL SERVICES IS CLOSELY FOLLOWING THE PROGRESS OF TROPICAL DISTURBANCE AL94, WHICH HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION IN 36-HOURS AND IMPACT THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS.
GIVEN THE VERY HIGH UNCERTAINTY OF WHETHER AL94 WILL BECOME A TROPICAL CYCLONE BEFORE REACHING THE AREA AND EVEN HIGHER UNCERTAINTIES OF THE FORECAST TRACK, INTENSITY AND SIZE, IF IT WERE TO DEVELOP INTO A STORM, IT IS IMPOSSIBLE TO PREDICT WHAT EXACTLY WILL BECOME OF THIS SYSTEM, AT THIS TIME.
NOTWITHSTANDING, AT THE REASONABLE WORST-CASE, DISTURBANCE AL94 POSES LITTLE TO NO THREAT TO THE ISLANDS, BUT THIS COULD CHANGE QUICKLY AND REQUIRE QUICK ACTION BY RESIDENTS TO PROTECT LIFE PROPERTY AND LIVELIHOOD.
AT 2 PM ECT OR 1800 UTC, TROPICAL DISTURBANCE AL94 WAS LOCATED ABOUT 645 MILES SOUTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS MOVING WEST- NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST AND THE SYSTEM HAS A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE BY TUESDAY AND A 50 PERCENT CHANCE BY FRIDAY.
ON ITS FORECAST TRACK, THE SYSTEM WILL MOST LIKELY AFFECT THE LEEWARD ISLANDS MONDAY NIGHT AND THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS TUESDAY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE. ALTHOUGH UNLIKELY, FURTHER DEVELOPMENT TO A TROPICAL STORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT WHILE THE DISTURBANCE IS OVER OR NEAR THE ISLANDS.
PLEASE NOTE THAT NO ALERTS, WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT, AT THIS TIME, BUT THIS COULD CHANGE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
RESIDENTS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR TROPICAL DISTURBANCE AL94 CLOSELY AND HAVE THEIR HURRICANE SEASON PLANS PREPARED, IN THE EVENT THAT QUICK ACTION IS REQUIRED TO SAFEGUARD LIFE, PROPERTY AND LIVELIHOOD.
AN UPDATE WILL BE GIVEN AROUND 9 PM THIS EVENING.
